Allen McCallum's Blog

My over/under on Bedard

Sun, 10 Feb 2008 01:57:29 GMT

I am not a betting man. The closest that I get to it is the annual fantasy baseball league or two that I play in with my best friend. However, I think the time has come to lay odds on what Erik Bedard will do now that he is out of Baltimore. Everyone is predicting a pitcher that will win 20 games next season and lead the team in the Emerald city to the playoffs. I’m really not sure that I agree.

Make no mistake about it, Bedard is the best pitcher and only ace the Orioles have had since Mike Mussina bolted for Bronx pinstripes. I think that it was in the spring of 2002 that I watched Bedard throw the most wicked curve that I had seen since Gregg Olson was in his prime to Rafael Palmeiro (then of the Texas Rangers….and not yet disgraced) in a spring training game. I went on the air with Nestor the next day and said “I have seen the future, and his name is Erik Bedard!” There was no question in my mind that he should have been in the lead for the American league Cy Young Award before he got hurt. Let me emphasize BEFORE he got hurt, and never pitched again. There was no question that he is a talent, and although it took a little while longer than those of us in Baltimore would have liked, for the most part, we saw that talent come to fruition. Talent however, (as I have heard a few people say in the last day or so) is not the only ingredient needed to be a champion.

A lot of people that have watched Bedard play question his heart and his desire. There are people in the organization who privately questioned his heart and his desire. I have to count myself among this crowd. Yes, it is hard to say that after watching the majority of his last two seasons in Baltimore when he made much of the American League look like little boys with tooth picks in their hands. That said, when I think of a leader, I have never thought of Erik Bedard.

Bedard and former Oriole ace Mike Mussina are similar in a few ways. Bedard and Mussina are both from small towns. They could both be aloof when it came to the media and the fans. They have both been perceived at arrogant by the masses. While Mike got there almost immediately in his career, when they arrived at the elite status, they both took the league by storm. At that point, much of the comparison comes to an end. Mike was a leader. Don’t mistake what I am saying. Mike wasn’t a leader of men. Certainly not! Mike was a pitching staff leader.

Mike always wanted the ball. He never wanted to come out of games. Mike was not only capable, but desirous of going 9 innings. He always cared about winning. If a season was going south, Mike still gave it all he had when he was on the mound. Whether it was for selfish, or for team reasons can be debated, but the results certainly cannot. They still benefited the team. As much as people would say that all of the conditions had to be right for Mike to pitch, I remember him holding the ball on the mound a whole lot of the time.

It always seemed pretty easy to keep Bedard off the mound. It wasn’t so much that people questioned that he was hurt when he missed starts, but many would question how long he would be gone, and how long it would take him to heal. It is true that this is an era in the game where completing what you started as a pitcher is a rarity. That said, it does happen! In his five year career, Erik Bedard has one complete game. ONE! That came last season in his most brilliant performance. You want your ace to be able to go the distance on occasion to save the pen and boost the team. I’ve heard some people criticize guys for not taking the ball on three days rest and not killing themselves to win. I think that is a bit much. However, your best pitcher should be able to carry the load.

Despite what he said yesterday at his press conference, I’m not sure that Bedard really cares about winning. While I will not put him in the category of being a bad guy as some have, I do think that rubs off on young impressionable players. The Orioles have gotten rid of a lot of the guys they had in the last few years who thought that as long as they were in the big leagues, that was enough. There are still a few left. Jeremy Guthrie and Adam Loewen strike me as guys who do have a fire to prove something and to win. It would have be a shame to see that snuffed out. Perhaps I am underestimating him, and all he needs to turn on the eye of the tiger is the thrill of the pennant race. If that is the case, isn’t that in reverse? Don’t you want your staff leader to lead the charge rather than ride the wave? Let me put it another way; do you really think that the Baltimore Orioles will turn this decade long losing streak around with players who cannot find it in themselves to be winners? Particularly when that player is the staff pitching ace?

If the Orioles had kept him, he would have been a free agent in two years. Despite so many of these glaring issues, Bedard will probably command $18 - $20 million dollars. Frankly, I don’t think that he is worth it now, and I would bet that he won’t be worth it then. If even a couple of the players that the Orioles received prove to make an impact, that is money well spent if you ask me. If Adam Jones is one of those players, the Orioles could be in good shape.

I think that I have given you a decent picture of what I think of Bedard. So, the over/under on what I think his season will look like:

Wins – 15-17: I don’t think Bedard will win 20 games. Only one pitcher has done it in the last two years. His improved bullpen will help him. So will pitching the majority of his games at Safeco. I am not sure however how much better the Mariners offense is going to be than what the Orioles had last year. If they had kept Jose Guillen, I might think more of it. They have some holes that they need to figure. Bedard also doesn’t go deep enough into games to bridge the gap in the close ones. Finally, he can’t stay healthy through an entire season.

ERA – 3.50 – 3.85: That is a product of talent, execution, knowing the league, and defense. He can handle his end when he is healthy, and the Mariners should be an exceptional defensive team.

STRIKEOUTS – 225: Yes, he almost reached that number in five months last season. If he is smart, he will see how good his defense is, and save some of his arm by letting his guys catch the ball. (Adrian Beltre and Yuniesky Betancourt may be the best defensive left side of an infield in the American League.)

TIME ON THE DL – 30-35 days: There is no question in my mind that he will spend at least a month on the 15 day DL sometime this season. It could be an oblique. It might be a strained hamstring. He might wear his new hat too tightly causing migranes. Whatever the case, I would bet that he suffers a legitimate injury requiring an illegitimate recovery time.

PLAYOFF APPEARANCES IN THE NEXT TWO YEARS – 0: I think the Mariners have overestimated how good they are from top to bottom. Felix Hernandez is much like Bedard was a few years ago. He has tons of talent, but is still figuring it out. I think that he is far too young to be considered staff ace 1-A. As I mentioned earlier, I think the offense is going to have trouble. Despite the recent news that Kelvim Escobar could be out for the Angels, I think that they are still the team to beat in 2008. Yes the A’s and Rangers are rebuilding, which makes it a two team race, but anything can happen in a 4 team division. Don’t be surprised if the Rangers return to the top of the division in 2009. They still have a nice collection of talent in Arlington. A year from now they might finally have the pitching staff to go with it.

NUMBER OF CHAMPIONCHIPS IN THE NEXT TWO YEARS – 0: (See above.)

FREE AGENT SALARY IN 2009 – 18.5 million dollars annually, 5-7 year deal: No matter what you or I think, he is one of the best pitchers in the game. With what some of the jokers out there are making, there is no doubt that barring injury, Bedard has a huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge pay day coming! Who knows, if the Orioles want him back, maybe they’ll pony up the dough. I’d just assume they’d pass.

I have nothing against Erik Bedard. I don’t have a problem with what he said yesterday. Frankly, he told the truth, and didn’t embarrass Baltimore while doing it. I couldn’t care less whether he ever speaks to the media. I also wish him well in making as much money as he possibly can. I just don’t think he is made of the stuff that you want in a champion. Good luck in Seattle Erik! I’m looking forward to watching Adam Jones go get ‘em in center!

Even in doing the "right thing" O's handle business poorly

Sat, 09 Feb 2008 02:57:28 GMT

Let me make this very clear....Erik Bedard had to be traded! He was the one piece they had that would bring them a true blue chip prpspect. In Adam Jones, that is what they got. The arms that they recieved around Jones are nice fits for a needy organization as well. No, I congratulate Andy McPhail for pulling off a strong if not perfect trade. The problem came with insanity that was the wait.

When Kevin Malone left his position as Assistant General Manager with the Orioles to take the lead spot with the Dodgers, he said of Peter Angelos that the only issue that he had with the owner was his lack of understanding of timing in baseball managemet. Through all of the bad decision making the Orioles have been plagued with, no statement has defined this losing era more exactly. Bringing Andy McPhail on board was supposed to fix that problem.

Armed with his knowledge and expertise, and the autonomy to do what he saw fit for the team, McPhail is supposed to be the salvation of the organization. The biggest question from the time of his hiring through the early off-season was if McPhail would truly have freedom to make the moves that needed to happen. Through his first two major moves (Tejada and Bedard) it would be hard for anyone to question that the new GM does in fact have the ability to do what he deems necessary to improve this franchise on the field. The Orioles timing however, is still an issue.

It took nearly two weeks to complete a deal that everyone knew was going to go down. Two weeks to make something that all parties involved wanted happen. Two weeks where the deal could have fallen apart, or someone could have gotten hurt. There is no question that deals often take months to develop and finish. The problem is that this deal seemed to be all taken care of with the exception of the physical. It was then that Peter Angelos' influence showed up.

Angelos, a highly successful lawyer, likes things done in the same fashion you might handle a legal case. Having been burned in the past, he seems obsessed with dotting all of the i's and crossing all of the t's. As a result, the physicals held up the deal for an unreasonable amount of time. How many times have you heard that a trade is completed, pending a physical. Everyone understands that! If your buy damaged goods, you have a window to return them. In Angelos' realm that is not good enough. The Orioles once again became the butt of jokes around the baseball world. Even with a competent GM, they can't just get things done. It used to be blamed on the two-headed GMs. There is no second person this time. Unless of course....you consider Angelos.

At a time when they need to be reinventing their reputations with other organizations, they continue the same poorly executed patterns. It is instances like these that make teams hesitant to deal with the Orioles.

At a time when McPhail needs to be able to execute moves with teams and have them trust that he has no restraints, it was clearly demonstrated in the last two weeks that the biggest restraint of all is still in place.

Things have to be done at the right moment in baseball. Moves have to come when the opportunity is there. Wait too long sometimes...and poof....a better deal comes and you are left holding the bag. Just ask the new GM of the Minnesota Twins, Bill Smith, who waited too long to move Johan Santana and got less than he could have as a result.

After a decade of poor management, teams need to know that the Orioles are ready to change their practices.

Andy McPhail was the first step. Now the next step is to get Peter Angelos out of the day to day management of the team completely!

Big money contract...OK!

Other than that, you hired McPhail to be your organizational leader.

Trust him to be that, or this losing process will never get turned around.

TIMING IS CURIOUS IN THE TEJADA TRADE

Wed, 12 Dec 2007 22:11:42 GMT

Miguel Tejada is gone. It was a move that we all knew was coming, but I think that we were all hoping to get a little more out of it. Yes, the Orioles got 5 players in return for the former MVP, but is there real talent among them? Of the five, there is no question that outfielder Luke Scott is the biggest name. Yes, he has power. Yes, when he came up in '06 he lit the world on fire for a couple of months. There are three issues with him. The first one is glaring. He is almost 30 years old. Not exactly the talented youth that we were hoping for in return. The second is his questionalble ability to hit left handers. That could make him a platoon player. He is a mediocre outfielder. He is ticketed to play left field at Camden Yards which requires more than a mediocre ability.

The rest are names we have never heard. Three young pitchers with varying degrees of potential. Finally, a left handed 3rd baseman with pop, but big holes in his swing if you follow his statistics. It seems to me that if you could have gotten one can't miss prospect for Tejada, that might have read better. Instead, McPhail has netted five players in the hopes that two or maybe three prove to be competent major leaguers.

Here is my big question.....why now? McPhail, known as a patient and methodical mover chose today....the day before the Mitchell report is released to move Tejada. A player who has clearly lost much of his value on the trade market is now gone for a collection of "could be" players. If this were a land deal, wouldn't that make you wonder about the ground you were purchasing?

Let me be clear about this, I have no knowledge that Tejada is in the Mitchell report, or has done anything wrong. All I know is that since Palmeiro and the B-12 insinuation, there has been a lot of smoke surrounding Tejada. A player who started in the bay area. A little guy with previously amazing if not surprising pop. A player whose numbers have diminished steadily since the new testing policies were put in place by baseball. Now he is traded the day before a report that could become the equivalent of the scarlet letter in baseball circles is released for five "could be" players?

McPhail needed to make a move. He had to find a way to fill several spots with only a few blue chip pieces to move. Wait to long, and you run the risk of injury or continued diminishing abilities further weakening his position. Move to soon and you have what happened here. You get what you can get, and swallow hard and walk away from the table with what you can.

This puts even more pressure on McPhail to get class A talent from any deals involving Bedard and Roberts. The Orioles cannot waste their bullets. They don't have many to fire. I hope that I no Oriole is listed in tomorrow's report, and that all of these players turn out to be stars. Maybe I am too jaded, but given the team's recent history, neither of these hopes seems likely.

GIBBONS, AND RUMORS THAT BETTER NOT BE TRUE

Fri, 07 Dec 2007 15:26:28 GMT

It turns out that Gibbons was telling the truth all of that time when he continued to deny using steroids. Indeed he wasn't. He was using HGH all along. Gibbons simply adds to the long list of humiliations the Orioles have suffered during this decade of discontent.

Almost from his first spring training in Baltimore when he earned the nickname Popeye, people have suspected Gibbons of using performance enhancers. He is the classic example of why enhancers are used. An average...or below average athlete who may need something to help him get over the hump. One big season, and a couple of exciting career moments, are turned into a long term, multi-million dollar contract that will provide for him, his children, and probably his children's children. If you had the chance to do it, wouldn't you consider it?

Yes, all of the orioles 1st base/ outfielders/ DH's have distinguished themselves in this off-season. Millar, Huff, and Gibbons have damaged their credibility, and have turned off a fan-base that is looking for anything in the Orioles to embrace. IF there were any three players who I would say the Orioles could just release it would be these three players, and that is before you include the off-season mishaps.

At least Gibbons knew enough to be humble in the moment, apologize for his actions, and not appeal the suspension. Another situation where an athlete vows that there is more to the story and you will understand when the truth comes out, with no follow through would have not been good for anyone.

RUMORS

Two rumors that involve the Orioles have surfaced in the last 48 hours which I pray are not true. The first involves Tejada going to the Astros for players such as Adam Everett, and Chris Burke. While Everett is a quality defender, the Astros are looking to move these players because they can't hit. Chris Burke has been such a bust that even after Craig Biggio retired, the Astros went to free agency and blocked Burke (a player that they have been waiting for for some time now) with the signing of Kaz Matsui. If they can't hit in the National League, in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the game, what are they going to do in the AL East? Can anyone say under the Mendoza line?

The other rumor involves Roberts going to the Cubs for players sush as Matt Murton and Sean Marshall. Matt Murton? Matt Murton?? .... Matt Murton??? Come on now! I know that McPhail came from the Cubs, but COME ON NOW!!! McPhail needs to find a way to trade with a team other than the Cubs. There is a reason why they are current team with the longest run without a championship.

If the rumors are true, the Orioles could have moved Ramon Hernandez in a deal for Lastings Milledge. If McPhail picks up Everett Burke and Murton for Roberts and Tejada after passing up Milledge and several other names thrown in by other organizations, you would immediately have to wonder if we have the right man at the wheel. Right now they are just rumors, and I hope that is what they will remain.

JONES TO THE DODGERS

The Dodgers are following their Los Angeles counterparts in signing another center fielder a year after overpaying for one in the previous off-season (Matthews and Pierre respectively) Andruw Jones only signed for two years. If he is a bust it won't kill them. The money is far too much. He is still one of the best defenders, but he isn't what he once was. They are bringing him in for his pop. The problem is that his pop last year was nothing like what it was the previous two seasons. On top of it, Dodger Stadium isn't a hitters haven. Given the cost, I would have to say that the Dodgers will regret this move. A $12 - $15 million dollar per season price tag, and I might have a different opinion. The good news from an Oriole perspective is that it may make it a little easier to pry Matt Kemp from the Dodgers in any potential deals now that they have Jones.

DEAL FOR TIGERS IS A WIN NOW MOVE

Wed, 05 Dec 2007 13:33:29 GMT

Yes, the Tigers have jumped in and for real for 2008. The deal for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis is, while slightly dangerous, definitely intriguing and picture changing for Detroit. It is dangerous because of Willis' ballooning ERA, and because of Cabrera is...well just ballooning. It is picture changing because of what these players have done previously. Cabrera is one of the top 5 hitters in the game. Willis is a work horse who was great in his first few years.

All of that said, the Tigers are taking a different view from most of the teams in the game today. If you look at most of the actions of this off-season, everyone is desperately trying to protect their future. Prospects are the new currency, and the trade market is the new free agency. Few teams seem willing to move top prospects for high priced players who may leave in a year or two. Just ask the Minnesota Twins about the diffieculty in separating trade partners from their top prospects, and multiple numbers of them at that. When moving top players demands that you give AT LEAST three of your top farm system players, or those newly in the big leagues, you are asking teams to sacrifice the cream of the crop in their system, potential impact players who could be around for six to ten years, and payroll flexibility. Most teams are backing away from the table and saying "No thank you"! The Tigers asked for second helpings.

The Tigers play in the highly competitive American League Central. I can make an argument that every team in the division with the exception of the K.C. Royals has a chance to win it. After representing the A.L. in the World Series two years ago, the Tigers took a step back last season. This propels them back to the forefront of the division along with the Cleveland Indians and perhaps the Minnesota Twins. But for how long?

Yes, the Tigers do have young talent. Justin Verlander, Curtis Granderson, the injured Joel Zumaya and now Willis and Cabrera are all young players who would represent the core of the team. Around them however, is an abundance of veterans with a lot of mileage. Gary Sheffield, while still productive, is not far away from ending his career. Ivan Rodriguez is in the twilight of his Hall of Fame catching career. Todd Jones is old. Shortstop Edgar Renteria and Magglio Ordonez are in the middle of their careers. Turnover is certain to come in the next couple of seasons. The formula in the 21st century is to plug in your young talented players to replace the veteran free agent players. The Tigers gave those players up last night.

Maybin and Miller are clearly the jewels of the six players that were sent to Florida, but there is talent among the rest. Moving six young players that could be your future is a steep price. Make no mistake, to compete with the Red Sox, the Angels, the Indians, and the Yankees, not only do you have to be able compete with them on the field, but you have to be willing to wheel and deal with them off the field. Each of these teams does it a different way, but the results are undeniable. The Tigers have built a winning team through the draft, and by willing to take chances in free agency that other teams have turned away from. Magglio Ordonez was recovering from a major knee injury when he recieved a big contract from the Tigers. I-Rod wanted a big contract that no one other than the Detroit wanted to give him, already in his thirties. These move paid off. They need to hope this one will.

Whether it does or not, one thing is for sure. The Tigers have shortened this current teams life span. They have beefed up for the short term. It better be enough, because if they don't win now, they might not win for a long time.

NO REST AND NO CELEBRATION UNTIL THE JOB IS DONE!

Sun, 14 Oct 2007 00:02:18 GMT

Now the Cleveland Indians should worry. If you watched the clinching game of the ALDS on Monday, you would have seen the Indians partying like rock stars in the clubhouse. Perhaps I should say that they partied like they had already won something ... and they hadn't. Beer and champagne flowed in the visiting clubhouse of Yankee stadium like the World Series was final and Cleveland had won it all for the first time in nearly sixty years. What a difference four days can make.

In game one of the ALCS, the Indians were dismantled by the Red Sox in much the same way that the Indians took apart the Yankees in game 1 of the ALDS. The series is far from over, and the tribe may have the most unhittable pitcher left in the playoffs (Carmona) on the mound tomorrow. That said, this young team needs to quickly find a renewed focus if they hope to beat perhaps the most complete pitching staff in baseball.

Speaking of focus ... the Colorado Rockies continue to plug along at a clip no one has ever seen before. After watching closer Manny Corpas blow a save in the ninth on the road to the D-backs, this mostly young team from Denver once again displayed unflappable veteran-like character, as they mounted a rally which culminated in a bases-loaded walk to Willy Taveras. Freshly back from injury, Taveras -- who was added to the roster for the second round of playoffs -- has been in the middle of everything in the first two games of the NLCS for the Rockies. (If you didn't see the catch he made in right center field to end an inning and kill an Arizona rally last night, go to your television and find SportsCenter right now!!!! You won't be disappointed.

I will be the first to admit that I thought it was a mistake to add Taveras to the roster. Out since the beginning of September, the Rockies started this amazing run at almost the time he was put on the shelf. My theory is: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Obviously, Clint Hurdle and Taveras have a different theory ... and it is working.

These two series could end quickly, as did the four opening series. I think the main event will be where the real action will take place this year. Can anyone stop the Rockies?

A BRIEF NOTE ON THE ORIOLES:

Whether you agree with the firing of Leo Mazzone or not, I applaud the club for acting swiftly and decisively. I wrote in PressBox a few weeks back that the offseason moves in terms of front office and coaching personnel needed to happen swiftly so that a concerted and consolidated effort could be made towards building the 2008 club immediately after the baseball season ended. I also wrote that they had to let Trembley pick his own staff. They decided that they wanted him to be manager. Let him be the manager. He should be allowed to sink or swim with his guys around him. McPhail has been up front, decisive, and unapologetic with his decisions. I respect that. Frankly, sweeping away large parts of what has been broken for a decade is long overdue. Even though Mazzone and Duquette had only been here for two years each, they were brought in by a regime that needs to become a footnote in Baltimore Orioles history.

Speaking of which ... I have a great amount of respect for Mike Flanagan. Flanny has accomplished more than most could ever hope. He has done it with class along the way. However, he is very much part of the old regime I just spoke of. Ask former GM of the Atlanta Braves, John Schuerholz, about how many consecutive days off he has had in the past 26 years as the top man of two successful franchises. The job that you signed on for is arduous, exhausting and filled with rude awakenings. If you want to be part of the solution, you need to be a part of everything that happens. If you are not, you could be swept away by the winds of change like Perlozzo, Duquette and Mazzone. And there are many more I am sure will follow in the coming weeks. Sleep when you are dead. The team is bad, and there will be many sleepless nights ahead for those who try to right the ship until it is fixed.

My First Correction

Thu, 23 Aug 2007 00:59:59 GMT

Correction - Larussa, Anderson, Weaver, Leyland, and now Trembley, spent little or no time in the big leagues as players, not managers. Obviously the first four on the list have enjoyed long careers as major league managers. We hope that Dave Trembley will enjoy the same success.

Allen

The Good News - and the BAD NEWS

Thu, 23 Aug 2007 00:52:43 GMT

Hello everyone!

For my first blog I was all set to write about how I was glad to see that the Orioles had given Dave Trembley the official nod as manager of the Orioles. While it is WAY to early to say that he has turned the team around, you can certainly say that he has gotten more out of the team in a little over two months than Sam Perlozzo had in his time as manager. It is the right call by the team to have their affairs in order as they move into the off-season. Trembley has earned his place as manager in a short time.

I heard an interesting point today. Some of the most successful managers (Tony LaRussa, Sparky Anderson, Jim Leyland, Earl Weaver to name a few) spent very little time in the big leagues as managers. They had to work, and learn, and sit, and listen a great deal of the time. They then had to fight for every move up they took.

The Good News - Congratulations to Dave Trembley. You are exactly the kind of guy that Baltimore loves to root for. We wish you the best.

THEN...came the BAD NEWS:

So the Orioles just finished the first game of the double header against the Texas Rangers....and they gave up 30 runs!!!!! This on a night they made the new manager official, and Matt Wieters attends his first game as a member of the franchise. Oh yeah, Garrett Olson (Baltimore's struggling rookie) starts game two. YIKES!!!! This was supposed to be a team that we could beat up on in an attempt to get closer to .500. Apparently the Rangers didn't get the memo.

There is an old saying in baseball when a bullpen is struggling, and the manager needs everything his starter has..."Its you today!" I hope Olson did get the memo.

Yes, it was ugly. Yes, it was embarassing. Yes, it is almost football season. It is also one game out of 162. We should all try to remember that as we try to settle our stomachs before we go to bed tonight.... That is, if you can sleep after this.

Thank you for taking the time to read my blog. I will be talking about the Orioles here. I will also be writing about Major League Baseball and all of the cool things that are going on. It is hard to see it as Oriole fans, but there are some great races going on in the game. Great races, real records are being broken, and the post-season looks like it could be a lot of fun.

Thank you everyone! I look forward to communicating with you here at the WNST blog site.

Allen