Gary Quill's Blog

Laurel Park: Selections for Maryland Million Day, Saturday, Oct. 4th

Sat, 04 Oct 2008 05:04:25 GMT

Have you heard the radio advertisement for today’s Maryland Million Day? It mentions a “halftime concert”. I’m confused. Are they running horse races or hosting a football game? Now I’ve been going to the track for more than 40 years and I have never witnessed a halftime. Word has it that the concert attraction, country singer Andy Griggs, will perform between the 6^th and 7^th races. Wouldn’t having the Morgan State Marching Band make more sense for a halftime show?

Recapping my selections from last Saturday, Sept. 27^th at Laurel Park …

Best Bet, Raging Ron (# 3; 8^th race; 5-1) ran into a buzz saw in Ju Jitsu Jax and just wasn’t up to the challenge finishing 3^rd, paying $2.40.

Longshot, Songapproved (# 9; 7^th race on the turf; 30-1) was scratched.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, $20 on Kitty Pleaser (# 6; 1st race; 2-1) caught a sloppy track and clearly struggled in her attempts to handle the off surface, fading to fourth and taking the $20 SHOW parlay down to defeat for the second straight Saturday.

Here’s who I like on Maryland Million Day, Saturday Oct. 4^th at Laurel Park…

Best Bet: Grand Champion (# 6; 2^nd race – Sprint Handicap; 6-5)

The Two Punch offspring returns to defend his crown, as he won this race in 2007. He’s well traveled, rested (last raced in April) but has been working well in the A.M. If you can get 6-5 on him RUN to the window, its way better than the return you’ve been seeing in your 401k lately.

Longshot: Off The Glass (# 7; 1^st race – Starter Handicap; 20-1)

History tells us that catching a longshot on Maryland Million Day is as tough as fishing with a gun. With that said, I like one right out of the gate. This field lacks speed, but this 9 year old veteran has shown the ability to press the pace. With so many other races looking “chalky”, the old-timer is worth a shot.

SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $60.90 ($80.90 - $20 bet + $0 return)

Three more shots at building a decent parlay, but it must start with a $20 bet.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day: $20 on Spectacular Moon (# 4; 10^th race; 5-1)

This four year old filly does her best running over the Laurel Park dirt oval scoring in 3 of her 4 starts here. I respect trainer Michael Trombetta’s work and cannot help but pull for local owners (the Pons family of Country Life Farm) in the Distaff on a day that we celebrate Maryland-bred bloodlines.

In the nine (9) other Maryland Million races, I like…

Distaff Starter (3^rd race): # 7 – All Attitude (3-1)

Turf (4^th race): # 1 – Broadway Producer (8-5)

Nursery (5^thrace): # 8 – Callmemisterlouis (8-1)

Turf Sprint Handicap (6^th race): # 7 – Natural Seven (3-5)

Turf Ladys (7^thrace): # 2 – Debbie Sue (9-2)

Lassie (8^th race): # 7 – Blind Date (5-1)

Sweet Goodbye (9^th race): # 2 – Sweet Goodbye (5-2)

Classic (11^th race): # 3 – Five Steps (7-5)

Sprint Starter Hcp. (12^thrace): # 3 – He’s A Dixie Boy (15-1)

These are who I like. How about you? Good luck with your selections!

Help save thoroughbred horse racing in the great state of Maryland.
On November 4^th, vote FOR Maryland slot machines (Referendum #2).

Laurel Park: Selections for Saturday, Sept. 27th

Sat, 27 Sep 2008 04:48:29 GMT

Horse racing history will occur today at Belmont Park at approximately 5:55pm and you can witness it live on ESPNews. Reigning Horse of the Year, Curlin, competes in the $450,000 Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup. A victory will make him the only horse to surpass $10 million in career earnings as well as pass Cigar to become the leading money winner of all-time.

Recapping my selections from Saturday, Sept. 20^th at Laurel Park …

Best Bet, Rough Shot / Imagini entry (# 1/1A; 2^nd race; 3-2) as expected one of the two were scratched. Rough Shot ran and ran rough shot over this weak field for an easy 5 length score, paying $4.20 3.20 2.20.

Longshot, Fine Shine (# 6; 5^th race on the turf; 8-1) at 21-1 failed to get involved at any point in the contest and finished dead last.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, $116 on Legendary Lover (# 5; 9^th race; 4-1) trainer Gary Capuano pulled a fast one, electing to have Travis Dunkelberger ride eventual winner Wonder Mon instead of my selection Legendary Lover, ridden by Carlos Quinones to an evenly 5^th place finish as the 5-2 2^nd choice, taking the SHOW parlay down with him.

Here’s who I like for Saturday, Sept. 27^th at Laurel Park…

Best Bet: Raging Ron entry (# 3; 8^th race; 5-1)

A small field of five promising 2 year old colts will knock heads for the first 5 furlongs setting a blistering pace, but there will only be one (Raging Ron) who will pass the fading speed… at least that’s how I see it.

Longshot: Songapproved (# 9; 7^th race on the turf; 30-1)

She’s been down this road before, coming back to her level after facing boys and at a claiming price way beyond her worth. Today she fits in with these and should make some noise at a price.

SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $80.90 ($196.90 - $116 bet + $0 return)

With the five race winning streak now history, let’s start over with a new $20 bet.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day: $20 on Kitty Pleaser (# 6; 1st race; 2-1)

Third time is a charm as this maiden makes his third career start. Trainer has a nice win percentage. At the very least he should hit the board to make a small profit in the SHOW column.

These are who I like. How about you? Good luck with your selections!

Help save thoroughbred horse racing in the great state of Maryland.
On November 4^th, vote FOR the Maryland Slots Machine referendum.

Laurel Park: Selections for Saturday, Sept. 20th

Sat, 20 Sep 2008 04:02:42 GMT

The 23^rd running of the Maryland Million event is scheduled for October 4^th at Laurel Park, and this year there will be a special tribute to Jim McKay. In the future, with legislative approval during the 2009 session, the racing event will be known as Jim McKay Maryland Million Day and the trophy for the Classic Race named in his honor.

Jim McKay was responsible for the creation of the Maryland Million program, modeling it on the first Breeders’ Cup run in 1984. In 1985 Jim championed the idea with local industry groups, breeders and owners whose support he would need to make “Maryland Million Day” become a reality. His herculean efforts resulted in the first running on October 18, 1986 at Laurel Park.

Recapping my selections from Friday, Sept. 19^th at Laurel Park …

Best Bet, Love That Dance (# 6; 6^th race; 4-5) was bet down to Secretariat-like odds of 1-5 but failed to deliver a 20% win payoff as she gave up her lead in the last 70 yards to finish second to You Rock. Love That Dance paid a meager 2.10 and 2.10 to Place and Show, respectively.

Longshot, Dream Digger (# 12; 5^th race on the turf; 12-1) was scratched.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, $114 on Red Gulch (# 9; 2^nd race; 9-5) scored an easy win as the 7-5 favorite who had no problems distancing himself from (in my opinion) his only rival, Prowling Tiger, paying $4.80 3.00 2.40. That SHOW pay-off increases the parlay amount by $22.80.

Here’s who I like for Saturday, Sept. 20^th at Laurel Park…

Best Bet: Rough Shot / Imagini entry (# 1/1A; 2^nd race; 3-2)

Take your pick because these stable mates are the two best among this group. I’ll go as far to say if one gets scratched, no matter which one, I’ll take my chances on the other. If both run, you might be better off making a Place wager because if they happen to run 1-2, the Place pay-off might exceed the Win pay-off?

Longshot: Fine Shine (# 6; 5^th race on the turf; 8-1)

He was last seen on the track back in April putting in a horrible effort on a muddy surface. Maybe he needed the time off to regroup, get in shape and test the Laurel grass course where he’s been ITM 2 out of 3 lifetime starts. He’s a deep closer who will need a quick early pace to have a chance in the final strides here.

SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $196.90 ($174.10 - $114 bet + $136.80 return)

With a five race winning streak on the line and a handsome return so far, at this time we’ll reduce the parlay amount by $20 (equal to our original bet) by putting it back into our reserve, guaranteeing an $80 bankroll if/when the parlay loses… …

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day: $116 on Legendary Lover (# 5; 9^th race; 4-1)

In today’s feature race, the $50k Deputed Testamony Stakes, there is a fair amount of speed in this one mile contest. Legendary Lover has proven he can come from off the pace to score. Even though his pilot, Travis Dunkelberger is still looking for his first win at this meet, he’s good enough to hit the board if not win it.

These are who I like. How about you? Good luck with your selections!

Help save thoroughbred horse racing in the great state of Maryland.
On November 4^th, vote FOR the Maryland Slots Machine referendum.

Laurel Park: Selections for Friday, Sept. 19th

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 02:10:37 GMT

Are the wild swings in the stock market making you lose sleep at night? Relax. Try something different this weekend and enjoy 9 exciting chase scenes at Laurel Park. Where else can you get 4 hours of entertainment for less than $20 (betting $2 WIN, PLACE or SHOW on each race) and have a chance to leave afterwards with more than your original $20?

Recapping my selections from Thursday, Sept. 18^th at Laurel Park …

Best Bet, Too Salty For Me (# 4; 2^nd race; 5-2) never got the lead, but settled in behind the early leader, following him from gate to wire at odds of 7-2 to finished a “best of the rest’ second, paying $4.00 and $2.10.

Longshot, Populist (# 7; 5^th race on the turf; 8-1) was scratched.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, $63 on Gianna’s Princess (# 2; 7^th race on turf; 4-1) was a big, fat, winner in this race paying $7.20 4.00 3.60. That SHOW pay-off increases the parlay amount for today to $114.

Here’s who I like for Friday, Sept. 19^th at Laurel Park…

Best Bet: Love That Dance (# 6; 6^th race; 4-5)

She’s a standout among this group of 2 year old fillies based on her performances in her 3 career races. Quick from the gate and smooth sailing if she is well, which the A.M. drills suggest she is. The potential for an 80% return in a minute and change is attractive.

Longshot: Dream Digger (# 12; 5^th race on the turf; 12-1)

I love the baby (2 year old) maiden races on the turf, especially when the field is full of first-timers. My Dad taught me a lot about playing the ponies. Probably the most valuable piece of information he passed onto me was the ability to recall good turf horses in the bloodlines. Dream Digger’s sire Rahy was a really nice turf runner who has passed on that trait to his offspring. He’s on the Also Eligible List today, so hopefully there will be a scratch or two allowing him to make his debut today.

SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $174.10 ($123.70 - $63 bet + $113.40 return)

With a four race winning streak on the line…

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day: $114 on Red Gulch (# 9; 2^nd race; 9-5)

This race is filled with bad, low-level claimers and appears that only two have shown the ability to contend even at this ($5k) level. Prowling Tiger (#1) took a big class drop last time out and ran a disappointing 4^th. So I’m betting that Red Gulch is in good enough shape to finish in the top 3 here.

These are who I like. How about you? Good luck with your selections!

Help save thoroughbred horse racing in the great state of Maryland.
On November 4^th, vote FOR the Maryland Slots Machine referendum.

Laurel Park: Selections for Thursday, Sept. 18th

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 03:56:17 GMT

Magna Entertainment, parent company of Laurel Park is contributing $2 million towards the “Pro Slots” cause. That’s some serious coin and speaks volumes as to how badly the horse racing industry needs this referendum to pass in order to survive beyond 2009.

Recapping my selections from Wednesday, Sept. 17^th at Laurel Park …

Best Bet, Classy Credentials (# 1; 4^th race; 3-2) was the 4-5 betting favorite but ran into tough racing luck when she was forced to avoid a fallen horse early in the race. After recovering, she moved at the leader entering the stretch but had nothing left at the eighth pole and settled for third, paying $2.10

Longshot, Best Approach (# 7; 1^st race; 6-1) never got involved in this contest at 14-1, finishing an uneventful trip in 5^th place.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, $37 on Heavenly Moon (# 10; 7^th race; 3-1) was a wise selection. Though the betting public wasn’t convinced (Final Odds of 7-2), she ran her typical solid race finishing second, just ¾ length behind the winner returning $3.40 to SHOW. Our bet pays $62.90 as the SHOW parlay lives on.

Here’s who I like for Thursday, Sept. 18^th at Laurel Park…

Best Bet: Too Salty For Me (# 4; 2^nd race; 5-2)

Throw out his last race and he’s a winner today. It’s that easy. If only they all were this easy to handicap. With a clean break, he should be able to grab the early lead and never look back.

Longshot: Populist (# 7; 5^th race on the turf; 8-1)

She only has raced once on the grass (runner-up at 5 ½ furlongs among maidens), but was entered in an overnight stakes turf race at Delaware Park in June going 1 1/16 mile (today’s distance) which was taken off the turf due to unfavorable conditions that day. Appears trainer Gary Capuano had confidence in her grass running ability in June, so I’ll back her today in a $32k Allowance affair.

SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $123.70 ($97.80 - $37 bet + $62.90 return)

With a three race winning streak on the line…

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day: $63 on Gianna’s Princess (# 2; 7^th race on turf; 4-1)

This 4 year old is 4 for 4 in hitting the board on the Laurel Park turf course. She doesn’t have the motivation to cross the wire first (1 of 16 lifetime) but at today’s distance and level has never failed to pick up a check.

These are who I like. How about you? Good luck with your selections!

Help save thoroughbred horse racing in the great state of Maryland.
On November 4^th, vote FOR the Maryland Slots Machine referendum.

Laurel Park: Selections for Wednesday, Sept. 17th

Wed, 17 Sep 2008 03:33:44 GMT

This past Saturday at Monmouth Park Big Brown proved me wrong. He looked like his old self in winning by a length over my choice, Proudinsky, and six other older rivals on a soft turf course. This race was his final prep for the Breeder’s Cup Classic in six weeks for a potential showdown with Horse of the Year Curlin. Something the entire horse racing community would like to see.

Recapping my selections from Saturday, September 13^that Laurel Park…

Best Bet, Ham And Ernie (# 6; 1^st race; 2-1) gave a good account of himself in beating the 6-5 favorite but couldn’t get past the 7-1 winner. His runner-up finish returned $3.20 2.10.

Longshot, Dunderhead (# 1; 4th race; 20-1) went off as the longest shot on the board (50-1) and played the part. He was unruly pre-race and didn’t run a lick from gate to wire.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, $36 on Task Force (# 5; 6^th race; 5-2) was a winning wager having the smallest return possible (5% ROI) as he went off as the 2-5 favorite, yet could only muster a third place finish. That’s fine by me. The SHOW parlay lives on as the bankroll increases a poultry $1.80 to $37.80.

Here’s who I like for Wednesday, Sept. 17^th at Laurel Park…

Best Bet: Classy Credentials (# 1; 4^th race; 3-2)

Never let a Stronach Stables owned horse slip by. Magna Entertainment CEO Frank Stronach seems to always have top horses in his stable… and after all, he needs the money to help make a payment on a past due loan.

Longshot: Best Approach (# 7; 1^st race; 6-1)

This 7 year old only has 3 lifetime victories in 41 career starts, but all 3 have come at Laurel. He comes into this route race having a 7 furlong tune-up after taking a few months off during the summer. Jockey Russell Sheldon is an upgrade over his previous riders.

SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $97.80 ($96 - $20 bet + $21.80 return)

With a two race winning streak on the line…

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day: $37 on Heavenly Moon (# 10; 7^th race on the turf ; 3-1)

Jockey Kendrick Carmouche and trainer Hamilton Smith have enjoyed early success at this meet thus far. Carmouche has won an astonishing 50% of her mounts (7 of 14) and Smith has met 40% of his starters in the Winners Circle (6 of 15). Considering Heavenly Moon has shown a liking for the grass (ITM 4 of 5; 2 of 2 on Laurel sod), one would think the odds are favorable that she hits the board today.

These are who I like. How about you? Good luck with your selections!

Help save thoroughbred horse racing in the great state of Maryland.
On November 4^th, vote FOR the Maryland Slots Machine referendum.

Laurel Park: Selections for Saturday, Sept. 13th

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 03:56:57 GMT

At Monmouth Park, Big Brown makes his second start since his failed attempted to capture horse racings Triple Crown in June. He won the Haskell Invitational in his last start. Today, in the $500k Monmouth Stakes scheduled for 1 1/8 mile on the turf course, he faces older horses for the first time in his career. I believe the 2-1 Morning Line favorite will be off the board! I’ll box Bobby Frankel trained Proudinsky, Skakis and Drum Major in the exacta.

Recapping my selections from Friday, September 12^that Laurel Park…

Best Bet, Elfriede (# 5; 1^st race; M/L 5-2) ran exactly as I anticipated as she drew away from the field in the stretch, in hand, to win by 5 making her 9-5 final odds look like easy money, paying $5.80 3.20 2.60.

Longshot, Phloxy (# 10; 3^rd race on the turf; 20-1) raced wide throughout this contest, never got involved and ran true to her 20-1 odds while finishing 7^th.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, $20 on Jet Run (# 6; 7^th race on the turf; 3-1) proved to be a wise bet. The 7-2 3^rd choice prevailed by a nose in a 3 horse photo for the SHOW money, returning $3.60. That’s a nice SHOW payoff considering his 7-2 odds.

I’m staying away from the turf races because of the rain last night and iffy weather today. Here’s who I like for Saturday, Sept. 13^th at Laurel Park…

Best Bet: Ham And Ernie (# 6; 1^st race; 2-1)

Has run respectably in his first two career starts, but connections continue to drop him in class… just looking to score? Hopefully the added distance will help, not hurt his chances today. Third time is a charm?

Longshot: Dunderhead (# 1; 4th race; 20-1)

I’m willing to ignore four (4) negatives solely based on this first-timers sire, Waquoit, who ran his best races over a sloppy track. The 4 negatives are… #1 Post for a first-timer; first-timer being offered in a claiming race; being offered for $2k less that the stated claiming price just to catch a 4 lb. weight advantage and was purchased at auction for less than a 32” HDTV ($1k).

SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $96 ($80 - $20 bet + $36 return)

With a one race winning streak on the line…

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day: $36 on Task Force (# 5; 6^th race; 5-2)

It’s not that I like him so much, it’s that his 6 rivals appear to dislike running on an off track. If he’s in any kind of shape, running at least 3^rd in a 7 horse field should not be a stretch.

These are who I like. How about you? Good luck with your selections!

Help save thoroughbred horse racing in the great state of Maryland.
On November 4^th, vote FOR the Maryland Slots Machine referendum.

Laurel Park: Selections for Friday, Sept. 12th

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 03:49:28 GMT

The Laurel Park Marketing Dept. seems to be giving it “the old college try” with their College Pride Day on Saturday. FREE Admission with student ID and there will be numerous chances to win gift certificates. The college having the most students and/or alumni in attendance will have a race named in their honor. This sport needs to recruit some young blood to bring the average age of today’s horse player below 60.

Recapping my selections from Thursday, September 11^that Laurel Park…

Best Bet, Eddie C. (# 2; 6^th race; 8-5) with Ramon Dominguez in the saddle for his only mount of the day ran an uninspiring 4^th as the 8-5 favorite.

Longshot, Gold House (# 10; 8^th race on the turf; 6-1) was scratched even though this race was run on the turf.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, Icy One o Four (# 2; 5^th race on the turf; 7-2) was part of an entry where I had hoped that her stable mate (Pillow Pal) would be scratched. Unfortunately, Icy was the one who got scratched. For the second straight day no action on the SHOW parlay.

Here’s who I like for Friday, Sept. 12^th at Laurel Park…

Best Bet: Elfriede (# 5; 1^st race; 5-2)

Of the eight runners entered in this $8k Maiden Claiming affair, Elfriede is the only one dropping down (from $10k) in class. She’s hit the board in 5 of her 10 lifetime starts with a second and a third at today’s distance (1 mile). This field looks weak enough that today could be her best chance to graduate.

Longshot: Phloxy (# 10; 3^rd race on the turf; 20-1)

She’s making her career debut going long (1 1/16 mile) which is always asking a lot of a filly, but her bloodlines scream “run me on the grass” with Cozzene being her granddaddy. Trainer Kevin Boniface only gets 2% of his first-timers to the Winners Circle, but he does his best work with grass runners. An outside shot, but she’s attractive at these odds.

SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $80 ($80 - $0 no bet, selection scratched)

Let’s go back to a turf race, no rain in the forecast…

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day: $20 on Jet Run (# 6; 7^th race on the turf; 3-1)

Trainer Howard Wolfendale not only sports a good win percentage (20%) but also sends all of his horses to the track on race day in shape to compete. Jet Run has only raced once on the turf and it was a forgettable 9^th. That was when he was in the hands of a different barn. He’s worth a shot.

These are who I like. How about you? Good luck with your selections!

Help save thoroughbred horse racing in the great state of Maryland.
On November 4^th, vote FOR the Maryland Slots Machine referendum.

Laurel Park: Selections for Thursday, Sept. 11th

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 05:00:57 GMT

Someone please explain to me why Georganne Hale, Racing Secretary at Laurel would construct a card where half of the races (8) were slated to be run on the turf knowing “Hanna” would dump several inches of rain in our area? Well, due to her lack of foresight, rail birds at Laurel Park yesterday were greeted with a tons of scratches as track management decided switch all turf races onto the main oval.

Recapping my selections from Wednesday, September 10^that Laurel Park…

Best Bet, False Alarm (# 1; 4^th race; 3-1) showed her early speed as predicted but had company on the front end but the pace was honest. As the field turned for home False Alarm pulled away from her early rival, but could not hold off the 6-5 choice in the final strides. As 3-1 2^nd choice, False Alarm’s runner-up finish return 3.00 and 2.40.

Longshot, Leipzig (# 3; 3^rd race of the turf; 20-1) was scratched due to this race being taken off the turf.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, turf-specialist Dr. Rico (# 7; 5^th race; 9-2) was another victim of a course change to the main track and was scratched.

Here’s who I like for Thursday, Sept. 11^th at Laurel Park…

Best Bet: Eddie C. (# 2; 6^th race; 8-5)

This 6 year old rarely runs a bad race. Considering Ramon Dominguez opted to ride him at laurel versus take the entire day off speaks volumes of his chances.

Longshot: Gold House (# 10; 8^th race on the turf; 6-1)

There are plenty of runners who could score here. Given Karamanos picked favorite Limey over Gold House doesn’t raise the yellow flag because the next best turf jock at Laurel (Malcolm Franklin) picks up the mount.

SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $80 ($80 - $0 no bet, selection scratched)

Let’s go back to a turf race, no rain in the forecast…

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day: $20 on Icy One o Four (# 2; 5^th race on turf; 7-2)

Scheduled for 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf, let’s cross our fingers that track management deems the turf course in good enough shape to run on it.

Icy is a cash cow. She has only made it to the Winners circle twice in 18 lifetime starts, but as been In The Money (ITM) in 14 of those races. Her turf record shows 9 times ITM out of 10. She’s entered with stablemate (Pillow Pal). It would be a good sign if Pillow Pal is scratched.

These are who I like. How about you? Good luck with your selections!

Please help save thoroughbred horse racing in the great state of Maryland.

On November 4^th, vote FOR the Maryland Slots Machine referendum.

Laurel Park: Selections for Wednesday, Sept. 10th

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 01:47:02 GMT

Nice way to start off the Laurel meet as both my Best Bet and Longshot picks on Saturday scored easy victories at generous prices (details below). I know Wednesday will be a winner. How could it not be? 19 years ago I said, “I do” to my beautiful bride, Jeanne. Somehow 19 years later she still loves me and puts up with my #1 sports passion, horse racing.

Slot machine argument FACT: For all who are against slot machines, there are more “for amusement only” (wink, wink) Video Poker machines in Baltimore City drinking establishments than there are slot machines at Dover Downs in Delaware. Education would receive 50% of legal slot machine revenue in Maryland. Horse racing would get a whopping 7%. Any guess what percentage of Video Poker machine revenue goes directly into the drinking establishment owners pocket… tax free? And you’re OK with that, right?

Recapping my selections from Saturday, September 6^that Laurel Park…

Best Bet, Shannon H (# 3; 6^th race) raced just off the pace into the stretch then made a strong move in putting away the early speed to win by 3 lengths. The 5-2 2^nd choice paid $7.80 4.40 and 2.40.

Longshot, Rock N’ Bid (# 15; 7^th race) was listed at 15-1 Morning Line as a Main Track Only entry for this race originally scheduled to be run on the turf. As predicted, Tropical Storm Hanna dumped a few inches of rain on the region which resulted in a six horse field over a sloppy track. Even with the small field, Rock N’ Bid was sent off as 4^th choice at 6-1 and breezed past the 1-5 chalk in deep stretch to win by 2, returning $15.60 4.40 and 4.60.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day, J J Makkem (# 6; 1^st race) was bet down to the 5-2 2^nd choice but never got on track as she raced “evenly” finishing in 4^th. Not a good start to the SHOW parlay.

Here’s who I like for Wednesday, Sept. 10^th at Laurel Park…

Best Bet: False Alarm (# 1; 4^th race; 3-1)

Usually I hate to back one who just won her second career race (in 15 starts) last time out, but she looks to be the “speed of the race”. There is no question that she’ll get the early lead. What I like is I don’t see any of her opponents putting much pressure on her early. If this plays out, she’ll have plenty left in the tank to hold off any of her more formidable stretch running foes.

Longshot: Leipzig (# 3; 3^rd race; 20-1)

Trainer Sanna Hendriks has two entries on today’s card, Leipzig and then in the 5^th race (6-1 M/L) Tifone. One of these two will most likely win because Hendriks is an amazing trainer of grass runners (wins 27% of starters) even though the majority of them are steeplechase runners. Add the fact that Leipzig makes his 2^nd career start on the grass in which Hendriks gets 38% of these types to the Winners Circle.

SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $80 ($100 - $20 bet + $0 return)

My initial $20 wager went down the drain. Today’s another day.

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day: $20 on Dr. Rico (# 7; 5^th race; 9-2)

Scheduled for 1 1/16 mile on the turf, let’s cross our fingers that track management deems the turf course in good enough shape to run on it.

Dr. Rico is as honest as they come at this level ($32k) and distance on the sod. He’s only been off the board once in six lifetime efforts on the grass at this distance. That one time he was in over his head yet still ran fourth. This makes him a solid SHOW Parlay play.

These are who I like. How about you? Good luck with your selections!

Please help save thoroughbred horse racing in the great state of Maryland.
On November 4^th, vote FOR the Maryland Slots Machine referendum.

Laurel Park: Fall 2008 Farewell Tour?

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:48:50 GMT

Thoroughbred horse racing in Maryland has been on a downward spiral since the first slot machine arm was pulled 18 months ago at one of the new slots parlors in Pennsylvania. No, it started back in 1996 when the state of Delaware installed hundreds of slot machines in their three racing venues. No wait! It was actually over 13 years ago when West Virginia was the first state to give their thoroughbred horse racing industry a shot-in-the-arm by passing a Slots Bill.

It’s unfortunate that over the past 10 years politicians in Maryland have played political hardball in refusing to pass a Slots Bill of our own. One that was intended NOT to pad the pockets of then Pimlico and Laurel Park owner Joe DeFrancis, instead help hundreds of Marylanders whose livelihood depends on a healthy horse racing industry in Maryland.

In my opinion, November 4^th is Judgment Day for the Maryland thoroughbred horse racing industry, for the horse breeding farms, owners, trainers, stable workers, exercise riders, track employees, etc. If the Slots Machine referendum fails to pass you can kiss good-bye live thoroughbred horse racing in this state, guaranteed! If it passes, a mere 7 percent of the slots revenue will go to horse racing purses whereas about half of the money would go to education. So why are people up-in-arms about the wording on the ballot?

For now, while we still have live horse racing to enjoy, I will do my best to heighten your interest in this Sport of Kings. During this meet, live racing will be offered at Laurel Park Wednesday thru Saturday through the end of 2008. During this meet, I will post a blog offering up my opinions, as I have done below. As an added item, I’ll feature what I call “SHOW Parlay Play of the Day”. I’ll start with a mythical $100 bankroll, using $20 of it to start the parlay. I figure the odds of me sustaining a single SHOW parlay play for the entire meet is slim. Therefore, we’ll have a reserve to tap into if/when a play loses.

A note for novices, when you bet to SHOW, it means your horse must finish 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd. Your payoff is the price posted under the SHOW column. A parlay means whatever the return is on your wager; you bet that entire amount on the next bet (i.e. “let it ride”).

If Mother Nature has her way, the feature race on Saturday will be the Hurricane Hanna Handicap to be swum at 1600 meters. The heavy favorite is Maryland-bred, Michael Phelps. Florida invader Flipper should be considered his main rival while Southern California-based Shamu is a huge longshot.

Hopefully, Saturday (Day 3) of the Laurel Park Fall Meet will be a go. Here’s who I like...

Best Bet: Shannon H (# 3; 6^thrace; 3-1)

This 3 year old daughter of Hay Halo has taken a liking when the track is “off’ (muddy or sloppy), so she’s as good as any I could find on today’s card.

Longshot: Rock N’ Bid (# 15; 7^th race; 15-1)

Race is scheduled for 5 ½ furlongs on the grass, but that won’t happen. So Rock N’ Bid, who’s entered for Main Track Only (MTO) always gives a good account of himself when the track is “off’.

SHOW Parlay available bankroll: $100

When starting a SHOW parlay, you’re looking for a good return to establish a base to build on which also means it is your riskiest selection. As a rule, we should find a large field (8 or more starters) and avoid the favorite. With this being said, let’s go!

SHOW Parlay Play of the Day: $20 on J J Makkem (# 6; 1^st race; 7-2)

Fellow Harford County owner/trainer/breeder connection has smartly placed this filly at a level where she’s capable of scoring her maiden victory in her third career start. At the very least she should hit the board.

Please help save thoroughbred horse racing in the great state of Maryland.
On November 4^th, vote FOR the Maryland Slots Machine referendum.

Who do you like today? Good luck with your selections!

Horse Racing Lesson #1: There are no sure things!

Sun, 08 Jun 2008 18:49:18 GMT

I apologize for the length of this blog, but it will be my last one until live racing returns to Maryland in August. Have an enjoyable Summer!

Something happened on the way to the coronation of Big Brown as the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years. It’s called history. It seems as if from the time Big Brown crossed the finish line on May 3^rd at Churchill Downs, we all put on the rose colored glasses and never took them off until after witnessing Big Brown finish last in the 140^th running of the Belmont Stakes.

Let’s face it. Everyone, from the most notable horse racing expert to the novice, we all got caught up in the hype and hope that the Triple Crown drought would end this year. Well the horse racing gods were not ready to make that happen. We want one so bad that we ignored logic and blindly believe each year the Derby and Preakness winner might be the second coming of Secretariat.

Do I think the fact that Big Brown did not have his monthly dose of steroids in May is 100% to blame for his flop in the Belmont? No. In my humble opinion, there were many other factors…

# 1 – The hoof. Whether the quarter crack bothered him during the race or not, his training schedule was compromised due to it. Athletes know that if they don’t practice for a week before a big game, you’re not going to be on top of your game.

# 2 – The heat. Sure, all of the horses had to deal with it, but looking at Big Brown on the track prior to the race, it was obvious to me that he was not handling it well. No replay will show the Post Parade, but if you watch the replay as they enter the clubhouse (first) turn from the rear, he appeared to be the only one with excessive kidney sweat (the white lather between a horses ass, to put it bluntly). Without getting too graphic, imagine if you were a runner and had to run the longest race of your life and you had “stuff back there”. I doubt that you could run your best.

# 3 – Rank. Again, watching the replay for the first couple furlongs, he fought jockey Kent Desormeaux, throwing his head, using unnecessary energy very early in the race.

# 4 – Pace. In my pre-race analysis blog, I stated that there was only one horse (Da’ Tara) except Big Brown who would want to be on the lead. When Big Brown did not challenge for that lead, Da’ Tara’s jockey Alan Garcia was able to slow the pace down to the point that the eventual winner had plenty left in the tank to hold off the rest of the field in the stretch. “Pace makes the race” is one of the oldest rules of horse racing.

# 5 – Eibar Coa. The jockey on Tale Of Ekati (#7). Again, watch the replay. Going into the first turn, Desormeaux attempted to come off the rail and stalk Da’ Tara. Coa was not going to let that happen. He rushed Tale Of Ekati up to cutoff Big Brown, forcing him to check and then swing to the outside of Tale Of Ekati. Coa continued to sacrifice his mounts chances by keeping him 6 wide throughout the backstretch, with Big Brown to his right, 7 wide.

# 6 – Money. Odds of 1-4 are short enough, but I thought they would have been 1-9. After all, he convincingly won the Preakness at 1-5. There must have been tens of thousands of $2 bettors purchasing their souvenir $2 WIN ticket on Big Brown. That alone would have made him 1-4. So the big money (insiders) may have sensed on Saturday morning that he was not on top of his game?!

… and this is why they put the horses in the gate and make them run 1½ miles around the track before they award the Triple Crown to the winner of the Derby and Preakness.

Recapping Day 30 (June 7^th) of the Pimlico Spring Meet …

Best Bet, Kaufy Big Shot (# 3; 2^nd race; 8-5) helped me go out on a winning note, even though the return was pretty poultry, paying $4.40 WIN and $2.60 PLACE. There was no SHOW wagering due to the small field of four horses.

Longshot, Queen Rio (# 8; 9^th race on the turf; 8-1) was running in her first lifetime race and appeared that she just needed the opportunity to get out and run, as she finished ahead of only 2 horses after trailing the field for most of the race at 10-1.

The 2008 Pimlico Spring Meet is now history. From my point of view it was a success. The majority of races had an adequate number of starters to draw betting interest. Many prohibitive favorites failed, which believe it or not is good thing. When favorites seem to always win, it tends to deflate handicappers ability in trying to find price horses.

I’ve enjoyed posting blogs for each live racing day at Pimlico. In reviewing my Best Bet and Longshot selections, The Daily Racing Form comment line on my performance would probably be “Early speed; faded”. Early in the meet I picked five (5) consecutive Best Bet winners. Throughout the meet my Longshot picks were often duds, but did manage to get a couple winners and quite a few in the money. My best pick turned out to be Student Council in the Pimlico Special, who paid $16.80.

Over the next eight weeks, there will be no live horse racing in the state of Maryland as Magna Entertainment tracks give way to Colonial Downs in Virginia. I will also take a hiatus from this blog to enjoy plenty of outdoor activities with my family.

Special thanks to Nestor who believed that my passion for horse racing would be beneficial to blog readers of the WNST website. Thank you Marc and Andrew Unger. You were the first WNST on-air radio personalities to give my blog exposure and introduce the WNST listening audience to me. I’m thankful for the new friendships I have gained with fellow WNST bloggers and associates… specifically Chris Voxakis, Ed Frankovic and Jason Jubb. And last but certainly not least, you, who read my blogs. I write the blog because I love to share my thoughts on horse racing with whoever is willing to read it. Your comments have inspired me to continue my quest to expand the horse racing audience both locally and nationally.

Enjoy your Summer. Look for my blog when live racing returns to Maryland in August.

Belmont Prediction & Pimlico Closing Day Selections for Saturday

Fri, 06 Jun 2008 20:38:57 GMT

I am jealous of those on the WNST bus to Belmont! I’d be with them if it weren’t for another commitment. If I were able to be at Belmont, I’d definitely want Big Brown win, but right now I'm on the fence. It seems that whether he wins or loses, this will be the last time we get to see him on the track. And that in itself will cheat horse racing fans from seeing a true champion… if he wins!

Think back over the past not 30, but just 10 years at how many times the Derby and Preakness winner was thought to be a "shoe in" to win the Belmont. There’s Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and War Emblem just to name a few. And those horses didn't have run down and/or hoof problems!

I probably want him to win, but the reality is there hasn't been a Triple Crown winner for 30 years because it's NOT an easy feat! It's hard to imagine that he cannot win based on how easily he has won ALL of his races. He’s never been challenged in deep stretch. How will he react if he is on Saturday?

It's weird... I was 15 years old in 1973 when Secretariat won the Triple Crown. The first to win it since Citation in 1948! At that time it seemed like an eternity. That gap was ONLY 25 years. Today it just doesn't seem has if it's been 30 years since Affirmed won it in 1978... has it to you?! Maybe I’m just getting old?

Here’s how I see the 140^th running of the Belmont Stakes, listed in my predicted order of finish…

1^st - # 1 Big Brown (2-5): There is no denying it. He is special. He is a freak. But he also has run down and hoof issues. These are nothing new and Dutrow hasn’t tempered his enthusiasm about this colt either. So why be foolish and bet against him? History is not on his side. So like a fool I’ll back him. Based on my recent success (i.e. lack of) in picking winners at Pimlico, this should provide everyone else an opportunity to bet against him! Go for it or to make some money, play a couple straight trifectas with him on top.

2^nd - # 10 Icabad Crane (20-1): After seeing his Preakness run… I’m now a believer. He was stopped and/or redirected at least twice in the final 4 furlongs, yet still prevailed to be third. There is no question that he can get the distance (A.P Indy bloodlines). He’s never been off the board in 5 lifetime efforts and the worst of those came on a synthetic surface. He continues to move forward with every race and I’m a big fan of jockey Jeremy Rose ever since his Afleet Alex ride in the 2005 Preakness.

3^rd - # 5 Casino Drive(7-2): The “wise-guy” horse. All the experts are claiming if Big Brown gets beat, this is the one who will do it. Even though he’s only got two career races under his belt, his bloodlines are proven at this grueling distance (1½ miles). His half-brother (Jazil) won this race in 2006 and last year his three-quarter sister (Rags To Riches) beat eventual Horse of the Year Curlin in dramatic fashion. The latter is quite an impressive feat. Add to the equation “Triple Crown Killer” jockey Edgar Prado. He rode Belmont winners Sarava (2002) and Birdstone (2004) who both spoiled Triple Crowns for War Emblem and Smarty Jones, respectively. For these reasons I’ll use him in my exotics, but he’s carrying 10 more lbs. than he did in his North American debut. note: 1913 was the last time a horse with only two previous starts captured the Belmont.

4^th - # 7 Tale Of Ekati (20-1): He stepped up big time in the Kentucky Derby with a fourth place finish. Now he gets to run on a track he seems to love, winning twice in as many starts as a 2 year old. If, and that’s a big “if” he returns to that form, he could be the price horse that finds his way into the money.

5^th - # 4 Denis Of Cork (12-1): I liked him in the Derby at a price and he delivered with a valiant 3^rd place effort. Trainer David Carroll is following the same workout tab as he did leading up to the Derby. A solid contender here, but the distance may be his undoing. I envision him making a strong move entering the final turn but flattening out in the stretch,

6^th - # 8 Anak Nakal (30-1): Earlier this week a friend of mine said he had a non-sexual dream about Anna Nicole Smith and asked if I thought it was an omen? I simply replied, “How could anyone have a dream involving Anna Nicole and it be non-sexual?!” Well, I’ve lost enough money on the equine Anak Nakal during his 2008 races not to act upon my friend’s possible omen.

His sire (Victory Gallop) did spoil Real Quiet’s Triple Crown in this race. Hmmm.

7^th - # 3 Macho Again (20-1): He continues to get better with every race, but I think he’ll “bounce” big time here. Also, his bloodlines aren’t the best for getting this distance. I’m not convinced that the switch from Leparoux to Gomez is an upgrade. Who knows, Leparoux may have bailed to ride Anak Nakal? Afterall, can you name a major 3 year old race where Gomez was the winning jock? I cannot!

8^th - # 9 Ready’s Echo (30-1): Trainer Todd Pletcher must like being in the limelight. He always seems to be able to come up with a horse that isn’t quite the Triple Crown caliper, but might be worth a second look for your exotics. He’s carrying 10 more lbs. than he did in his third place finish behind Casino Drive. That’s a ton when you’re asking a colt to run a marathon! I’ll pass.

9^th - # 6 Da’ Tara (30-1): Maybe trainer Nick Zito saw the early list of contenders were all void of early speed, with the exception of Big Brown and figured maybe this horse could make some noise or even steal it?! I see him on the front end with Big Brown for about 6 furlongs then packing it in looking for oxygen to make it the rest of the way.

10^th - # 2 Guadalcanal (50-1): Owned and trained by Frederick J. Seitz. Who?! I’m a horse racing geek and I couldn’t tell you where he calls home! It might be Florida. Even though this maiden, that’s right, maiden is Triple Crown nominated, the earth will stand still if this one gets a call in the stretch!

Here’s how I’ll play the Belmont…

$5 TRIFECTA Part-Wheel #1 with #10 with #4, #5, #7, #8 cost: $20

Recapping Day 29 (June 6^th) of the Pimlico Spring Meet …

Best Bet, Braeside (# 4; 4^th race; 3-2) helped extend my Best Bet winless streak to about 6. Despite of her 1-2 odds, she managed to follow the winner all the way around the track, paying $2.20 PLACE and $2.10 SHOW. Whoop-dee-freakin-do!

Longshot, Theycallmeadreamer (# 6; 5^th race on the turf; 20-1) got next to no support at the windows, going off at 51-1. He broke well, was in contention in the early stages of the 5 furlong sprint, but gave way in the stretch to finish 5^th.

Here’s who I like today, June 7^th, Closing Day (30) of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: Kaufy Big Shot (# 3; 2^nd race; 8-5)

It’s a short field of 5 going long. The pace should be slow and this one should be the dictator of it. Trainer Gary Capuano doesn’t have too many under his care, so when he sends them out, they usually are ready to score.

Longshot: Queen Rio (# 8; 9^th race on the turf; 8-1)

In this Maiden Special Weight contest, this first-time starter should give a good account of herself on the grass. Her breeding on both sides (Kingmambo and Boundary) suggests ability to run on the turf. Jockey Jozbin Santana and trainer Rodney Jenkins have been known to get them to the Winners Circle at first asking.

I want to hear who you like today! Good Luck with your selections!

Pimlico: Selections for Friday (Day 30) & Belmont Conspiracy Theorists

Fri, 06 Jun 2008 02:19:34 GMT

Enough already with the Conspiracy Theory that Big Brown was handed Post Position # 1 on a silver platter to insure he wins the Belmont on Saturday. Pleeeeease! I really shouldn’t complain though. The fact that the sports community is actually talking about the possibility of a Triple Crown winner gives me hope that there still is interest in the sport I love.

Contrary to popular belief, trainer Rick Dutrow would rather not have the inside post. When you have a speed horse, or one like Big Brown who likes to be on or near the lead, you want him on the outside of a competitor. Why? Horses are trained to pass other horses on the outside or on the right. Also, being on the rail isn’t necessarily an advantage. Based on the condition of the track surface, being off the rail is often the more favorable place to be.

Please don’t confuse horse racing with NASCAR, where whoever gets the Pole Position has a decisive advantage. But by all means, on Saturday you can treat this race as if it were a NASCAR event. Find somebody in your office who can get a bet down for you, grab a six-pack of your favorite beverage, and park yourself in front of your TV around 5:30pm. Tune into ABC and enjoy an hour of pre-race coverage leading up to the running of the 140^th Belmont Stakes, better known as “The True Test of Champions”. Post Time is 6:25pm.

Recapping Day 29 (June 5^th) of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

OK, I’m beginning to feel like the Angel of Death. Over the past few weeks my documented Best Bet has often been the bet down to very short odds, yet runs up the track?! Thursday was a classic example of that.

Best Bet, I’s The Boy (# 1; 4^th race; 3-2) was in my mind not only the better part of the Scott Lake entry, he was hands down, on paper the best horse in the race. And I was not alone in my analysis as the entry went off as the 1-2 favorite. Well he showed early speed but fell apart when challenged in the stretch, and folded like an accordion, finishing last (5^th).

Longshot, My Little Josie (# 4; 5^th race on the turf; 6-1) was looking strong, stalking the pace, but threw in the towel when the field headed for home. She finished 5^th in the field of 7 at 8-1.

Here’s who I (the Angel of Death to prohibitive favorites) like on Friday, June 6^th, Day 30 of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: Braeside (# 4; 4^th race; 3-2)

This filly was going to be my Best Bet about 10 seconds before she finished 3^rd in her last race on May 22^nd. That day I was enjoying lunch with a few friends at Pimlico’s Clubhouse Turfside Terrace as I watched jockey Rosie Napravnik guide her helplessly behind a number of horses along the rail at the far turn, again as she entered the stretch and pretty much until they reached the eighth pole. She was full of run, but never was given a chance to run. I think her M/L odds are a bit too low, but maybe the track oddsmaker noticed the same thing I did that day?!

Longshot: Theycallmeadreamer (# 6; 5^th race on the turf; 20-1)

I must be (dreaming) for picking this one, but hear me out. He’s been running in $4k claimers on the dirt at Charleytown over his past 10 or more races in his 26 lifetime starts. Prior to those, he ran on the turf 10 times, winning once and placing twice earning $48k. That equates to competing at around the $48k allowance level on the turf. That’s a better average than any of his rivals today. At 20-1, he’s worth a shot (and a prayer) that he can run back to his old turf form.

I want to hear who you like today! Good Luck with your selections!

Pimlico: Selections for Thursday (Day 29) & Belmont Post Positions

Thu, 05 Jun 2008 00:50:04 GMT

The Belmont field is set. Post Positions were drawn this morning in New York. Dual Classic winner, Big Brown has the listed as the 2-5 Morning Line (M/L) favorite and will break from the #1 post. He will be challenged by 9 other colts in the quest to capture the Final Jewel of the Triple Crown, which covers the distance of 1 1/2 miles. Here’s how they’ll break from the gate at around 6:25pm on Saturday…

PP Horse Name Jockey (M/L)

1 Big Brown K.Desormeaux 2-5

2 Guadalcanal J. Castellano 50-1

3 Macho Again G. Gomez 20-1

4 Denis Of Cork R. Albarado 12-1

5 Casino Drive E. Prado 7-2

6 Da’ Tara A. Garcia 30-1

7 Tale Of Ekati E. Coa 20-1

8 Anak Nakal J. Leparoux 30-1

9 Ready’s Echo J. Velazquez 30-1

10 Icabad Crane J. Rose 20-1

Recapping Day 28 (June 1^st) of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet, No Exposure (# 4; 6^th race; 3-1) was scratched.

Longshot, Midside Maggie (# 4; 2^nd race; 12-1) showed absolutely nothing on the main track while running dead last. Oh boy! It seems like she better stick to competing on the turf.

Here’s who I like on Thursday, June 5^th, Day 29 of the Pimlico Spring Meet…

Best Bet: I’s The Boy (# 1; 4^th race; 3-2)

This gray colt has racked up a ton of Frequent Flyer miles as Pimlico will be his 7^th track in just his 8^th lifetime start. Besides being half-brother to Preakness runner-up Macho Again, he has the potential to be pretty good in his own right. I see issues with each of his 6 rivals today, including his entry mate (# 1A) Baltimore Raven who runs best on an off track. Maybe trainer Scott Lake will scratch “Raven” in hopes of getting more than even money odds on I’s The Boy.

Longshot: My Little Josie (# 4; 5^th race on the turf; 6-1)

As long as this race stays on the turf, this 3 year old filly should be a force to be reckoned with. She’s competed in stakes races in 3 of her 5 turf efforts and was scratched on Preakness day from a $50k race when it was taken off the turf. Though she's sprinted in all of her turf tries, I think she'll do well going a miile. Getting odds of 6-1 or better would be a gift.

I want to hear who you like today! Good Luck with your selections!